Demography and its Impact on Transportation Services

Understanding the population you serve is at the core of every transportation professional’s ability to provide and maintain safe, efficient modes of transportation. The extent to which a highway would benefit from an increase in capacity or an intersection would be safer with better signage has strong connections to demography, as Professor David K. Foot’s keynote speech illustrated at the ITE 2007 Annual Meeting and Exhibit. As a Professor of Economics at the University of Toronto and co-author of the best-selling books Boom, Bust & Echo: How to Profit from the Coming Demographic Shift and Bust & Echo: Profiting from the Demographic Shift in the 21st Century, Foot has conducted demographics research that has resulted in contributions to a variety of fields from housing to human resource planning.

In addressing the transportation engineering community at the ITE Annual Meeting and Exhibit, Foot explained how examining the current and projected demographics of an area enables transportation engineers to better prepare for the future while continuing to meet existing transportation needs. In a follow-up interview, Foot elaborated on what he considers the top three demographic trends that transportation professionals might consider as they approach their work.

The first trend Foot considers significant to the transportation industry is that the peak of the baby boom generation in North America consists of people who are now 47 years of age. According to Foot, driving automobiles peaks for people when they reach their mid-forties, at the point when they have an average of two children at home who do not have their own driver’s licenses yet. With the large number of boomers driving their cars frequently, there has been a huge growth in the number of automobiles on the road in recent years. This does not mean, however, that building more capacity is necessary to accommodate future needs, since the boomers will not necessarily affect transportation in the same way as they age. Foot points out, “The past isn’t necessarily the guide to the future. Rather, the past helps you prepare for the future.” Demographics show that people drive less as they age into their 50s and 60s. Foot suggests that as boomers approach and reach retirement, there may be fewer automobiles on the road as a whole, and growth in the demand for new roadways may slow down while the need for improvements on existing roadways continues. Also, roadways and transportation systems around airports may see an increase in usage as the boomers begin using air travel more. Another area to consider is the proximity of parking to destinations, as an aging population is less likely to walk great distances. Anticipating the needs of the aging boomer generation, transportation engineers may focus attention on these areas to prepare for the future.

The second trend that Foot identified for the transportation community to consider is that the age of a population can affect the need for public transit. Demographics show that public transportation is mainly used by younger people in their 20s and those who are restricted financially from having a car. An aging population is also less likely to use public transit, as people in their 40s, 50s and beyond are more likely to use their cars as their primary means of transportation. The need for increased public transportation, therefore, is largely affected by the age of the community. Foot explains that knowing the demographics of an area can assist the transportation community in evaluating the need for public transportation systems. The children of the baby boomers, referred to as the echo generation, can still drive the growth of public transit since their numbers are almost as large as the boomer generation in the Unites States. The key is to understand which areas would benefit the most from improved or increased public transit. For example, Foot points out that in the United States, the Southwest is much younger than the Northeast, and as a result increased public transit may be more successful there than in other areas.

The third demographic trend that Foot predicts will have an impact on transportation is based upon the declining eyesight of the baby boomers. According to Foot, data shows that a significant number of people begin buying eyeglasses for the first time when they reach their 50s. Foot suggests that having a large portion of the population that needs more time to read road signs and cross intersections has huge implications for traffic engineering. For example, with an increasing share of the population over age 50, considerations might need to be given to increasing the size of road signs and the lengthening exit lanes.

Foot explains that demographic trends such as the three he has identified can raise important issues for the transportation community. Ultimately, how those issues can be resolved must be determined by transportation engineers.